Super El Niño: WMO Forecasts Record Warming
Why in News?
- On 8 October 2026, the World Meteorological Organization said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach record levels in October-December 2026. Down To Earth reported it on 9 October.
- The Niño 3.4 index is forecast at about +3.7°C for October-December, the highest since observations began. The earlier record was +2.6°C in November 2015-January 2016.
- The WMO gave a near-100 per cent likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027, with a peak around December. The forecast rests on a consensus of 13 national and international centres.
- Its forecast says drier-than-normal conditions are more likely over the Indian subcontinent.
- WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño is "firmly established and strengthening rapidly".
Key Terminologies
- El Niño
- A warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that alters rainfall and temperature patterns across the world. The WMO calls the 2026 event firmly established.
- Niño 3.4 index
- The sea-surface temperature anomaly in a central Pacific zone used to track El Niño. It rose from about +1.6°C in June 2026 to +2.5°C in August.
- Indian Ocean Dipole
- A pattern of temperature differences between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. The WMO expects a positive phase to peak in October 2026.
- Global Seasonal Climate Update
- The WMO's monthly forecast for temperature and rainfall for the coming three-month season, based on global producing centres.
Key Issues
- Record Intensity: The WMO forecasts a Niño 3.4 anomaly of about +3.7°C for October-December 2026, against the previous record of +2.6°C in November 2015-January 2016. This would be the strongest since 1950.
- Observed Heat: Down To Earth reports that the Niño 3.4 region reached 30.06°C on 5 October 2026, a first in the observational record, based on NOAA data.
- Global Temperatures: The WMO said August 2026 was the hottest August on record, and that above-average temperatures are likely across large areas in October-December.
- Rainfall Shifts: Drier-than-normal conditions are more likely over the Indian subcontinent, the western Pacific, the Caribbean and north-western South America. Wetter conditions are more likely in the Greater Horn of Africa and parts of Central Asia.
- Compounding Drivers: A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to peak in October, and equatorial Atlantic temperatures are forecast to stay above normal. These can add to regional extremes.
Key Implications
Positive/Pros/Merits
- Early Warning: A near-100 per cent forecast of persistence, agreed by 13 centres, gives governments months to prepare. The WMO says drought and flood risks are increasing in several regions.
- Forecast Skill: The India Meteorological Department said its ENSO and IOD forecasts for the 2026 monsoon were broadly consistent with the observed evolution.
- Institutional Capacity: Mission Mausam, approved with Rs 2,000 crore over two years, plans next-generation radars and high-performance computers to improve forecasts.
Negative/Cons/Demerits
- Drought Pressure: The monsoon of 2026 already ended at 87 per cent of the Long Period Average, as in our report on the monsoon retreat. A drier post-monsoon outlook adds to that deficit.
- Heat Stress: Above-average temperatures raise the risk of heat extremes. Down To Earth quotes forecaster Ben Noll that about 2.6 billion people may face unusually high temperatures through December.
- Uncertain Local Impacts: The WMO notes that the strength of an El Niño does not translate directly into the size of impacts in any region. India-specific effects remain uncertain.
- Data Gap: The WMO release gives no India-specific detail beyond drier conditions for the subcontinent, so any effect on rabi crops or cold waves is an inference.
Key Initiatives
- Mission Mausam: The Ministry of Earth Sciences mission was approved by the Union Cabinet with Rs 2,000 crore over two years. Phase-I runs 2024-26 and Phase-II 2026-31, with 50 Doppler weather radars planned.
- India Meteorological Department Forecasts: The department issued an April 2026 seasonal forecast and tracks El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Its season summary of 30 September 2026 said the ENSO forecasts matched the observed evolution.
- World Meteorological Organization: Its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update and the October 2026 press release warn of a very strong El Niño, with a near-100 per cent likelihood of persistence through February 2027.
- World Meteorological Organization, 3 September 2026: The August El Niño/La Niña Update said El Niño was firmly established and forecast it to reach very strong intensity.
The India Meteorological Department says its forecasts of El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole were broadly consistent with the 2026 monsoon season. The Ministry of Earth Sciences is carrying Mission Mausam into Phase-II in 2026-31, with finer models and radars. The WMO continues to issue monthly seasonal updates as the event strengthens.
Director's Perspective
Way Forward
- Issue district-level advisories for rabi sowing, with soil moisture and rainfall outlooks, because the WMO sees drier conditions over the Indian subcontinent.
- Run heat-action plans early in cities and rural districts, since above-average temperatures are likely through December.
- Plan reservoir storage with the 87 per cent monsoon in mind, and release data on water levels openly.
- Use Mission Mausam Phase-II to publish regional El Niño impact outlooks for India, which the WMO update does not provide.
The warning is credible and India should treat it as a planning signal, not a prediction of disaster. It rests on a 13-centre consensus and on observed record warmth, and India's own forecasters matched this year's evolution. What is missing is a precise India impact. In a Mains answer, credit the early warning and Mission Mausam, then conclude that India must convert global signals into district advisories before the rabi season.
GS Relevance
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the WMO say about El Niño on 8 October 2026?
The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño is strengthening rapidly and forecast a Niño 3.4 anomaly of about +3.7°C for October-December 2026, the highest since observations began. It gave a near-100 per cent chance that the event persists through February 2027, peaking around December.
How can El Niño affect India?
El Niño usually shifts rainfall patterns, and the WMO says drier-than-normal conditions are more likely over the Indian subcontinent in October-December 2026. It also warns that the strength of an event does not translate directly into local impacts, so effects on India remain uncertain.
What is the Niño 3.4 index?
The Niño 3.4 index is the sea-surface temperature anomaly in a central Pacific zone used to track El Niño. It rose from about +1.6°C in June 2026 to +2.5°C in August, and the WMO forecasts +3.7°C for October-December.
PYQ Practice — Statement Analysis
1 El Niño is associated with warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
The WMO forecasts record warming of these waters in October-December 2026.
2 The WMO forecast says wetter-than-normal conditions are more likely over the Indian subcontinent in October-December 2026.
It says drier-than-normal conditions are more likely over the Indian subcontinent.
3 Mission Mausam is a mission of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
It was approved with an outlay of Rs 2,000 crore over two years.