Monsoon Retreat 2026: Season Ends 13% Short
Why in News?
- On 8 October 2026, the India Meteorological Department reported that the southwest monsoon had withdrawn from the remaining parts of Maharashtra, and from some parts of Goa, Karnataka, Telangana and Odisha.
- It also withdrew from some more parts of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. The line of withdrawal passes through Supaul, Ranchi, Sundargarh, Hyderabad, Belagavi and Panjim.
- The department said conditions favour further withdrawal from eastern India, the northern peninsula and many parts of north-east India over the next 3-4 days.
- Its season summary of 30 September 2026 put all-India rainfall at 87 per cent of the Long Period Average, or 759.4 mm. That is the 4th lowest since 2001.
- The monsoon left north India on 3 October 2026. In Himachal Pradesh, the exit came nearly a week after its normal date of 25 September.
Key Terminologies
- Monsoon withdrawal
- The retreat of the southwest monsoon from India, which the India Meteorological Department tracks as a "line of withdrawal". In 2026 it began on 19 September from west Rajasthan, two days after the normal date of 17 September.
- Long Period Average
- The benchmark rainfall against which a season is judged. The department calls a season "deficient" when the all-India rainfall is below 90 per cent of this average.
- Monsoon core zone
- The region that holds most of India's rain-fed agriculture. Its normal band for the June-September season is 782.8 to 881.2 mm.
- El Niño
- A warming of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The World Meteorological Organization said in its August 2026 update that El Niño had become firmly established.
Key Issues
- Deficient Season: The India Meteorological Department recorded 759.4 mm for June-September 2026, which is 4th lowest since 2001 and 13th lowest since 1901. Seventeen of 36 subdivisions, covering 42 per cent of the area, were deficient.
- Regional Skew: East and Northeast India received 1017.1 mm, the lowest since 1901, and South Peninsula got 542.0 mm. Central India received normal rainfall at 97 per cent of its average.
- Core Zone Shortfall: The monsoon core zone received 779.9 mm, just below the lower limit of 782.8 mm. This zone supports most rain-fed farming, so the gap matters for kharif crops.
- Reservoir Stress: Central Water Commission data of 1 October showed Bhakra at 60.51 per cent of capacity against 85.95 per cent a year earlier. Punjab's major dam stood 36 per cent below normal.
- Forecast Gap: The department's 15 April 2026 forecast was 92 per cent of the Long Period Average, and the season ended at 87 per cent. It said its seasonal forecast stayed within the error limit.
Key Implications
Positive/Pros/Merits
- Timely Coverage: The monsoon covered the whole country by 9 July 2026, against the normal date of 8 July. It also reached the Andaman Sea on 16 May, six days early.
- Central India Cushion: Central India received normal rainfall, and 18 subdivisions covering 53 per cent of the area were normal. This protected a large share of cropped land.
- Odisha Excess: Odisha, covering 5 per cent of the country's area, was the only subdivision with excess rainfall. This shows uneven distribution helped some regions.
Negative/Cons/Demerits
- Farm Risk: Rain-fed farmers in the core zone and in 17 deficient subdivisions face a lower soil moisture start for rabi sowing. This is an inference from the rainfall data.
- Water Supply: Bhakra stood at 1,637.64 feet on 3 October against a limit of 1,680 feet, and its maximum level this year is among the lowest in its history, says the Tribune. This limits irrigation and power.
- Uneven Months: June rainfall was 65 per cent of the average and August 84 per cent. Dry spells at sowing and growth stages can cut yields even when July is normal.
- Climate Risk: The World Meteorological Organization expects El Niño to persist through September-November 2026 and become very strong. Its update does not mention the monsoon, so any local effect is an inference.
Key Initiatives
- Mission Mausam: The Union Cabinet approved this Ministry of Earth Sciences mission with an outlay of Rs 2,000 crore over two years. Phase-I runs 2024-26, Phase-II runs 2026-31, and it plans 50 Doppler weather radars and finer 6 km models.
- India Meteorological Department Forecasts: The department issued an April 2026 seasonal forecast and publishes daily bulletins, with the 8 October bulletin tracking the withdrawal line.
- Farmer Advisories: In its 1 October 2026 update, the department advised farmers to maintain drainage, protect harvested crops from rain and avoid spraying during heavy rain.
- Central Water Commission: It released reservoir storage data on 1 October 2026, which showed Himachal Pradesh's major dams 20 per cent below normal.
- World Meteorological Organization: Its El Niño/La Niña Update of 3 September 2026 said El Niño was firmly established, with a probability near 100 per cent of persisting into December-February 2027.
The India Meteorological Department says conditions favour further withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from eastern India and the northern peninsula in the coming days. The Ministry of Earth Sciences plans to take Mission Mausam into Phase-II in 2026-31, aiming at finer forecasts, radars and weather-management technology.
Director's Perspective
Way Forward
- Release district-level rainfall and soil moisture data to farmers early, so rabi crop choices can match the moisture left after the 87 per cent season.
- Use Mission Mausam Phase-II to add radars and finer models first in the East and Northeast, where rainfall was the lowest since 1901.
- Plan reservoir releases for Bhakra and Pong on a rolling basis, as storage was 60.51 and 67.56 per cent of capacity on 1 October.
The 2026 season was weak in total, but the damage was regional, not national. The monsoon was on time in July and central India was normal, yet East and Northeast India had its driest season since 1901 and reservoirs ended low. The forecast gap also shows limits of seasonal models. In a Mains answer, credit the timely coverage and Mission Mausam, then conclude that India needs finer regional forecasts and storage planning to manage uneven rain.
GS Relevance
Frequently Asked Questions
When did the southwest monsoon start withdrawing in 2026?
The southwest monsoon began withdrawing from west Rajasthan on 19 September 2026, two days after the normal date of 17 September. By 8 October 2026 it had left Maharashtra and parts of Goa, Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.
How much rain did India get in the 2026 monsoon season?
India received 759.4 mm during June to September 2026, which is 87 per cent of the Long Period Average. The India Meteorological Department calls this deficient, and it is the 4th lowest season since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901.
What is the Long Period Average of rainfall?
The Long Period Average is the benchmark rainfall used by the India Meteorological Department to judge a monsoon season. A season below 90 per cent of it is classed as deficient, and the 2026 season stood at 87 per cent.
PYQ Practice — Statement Analysis
1 The southwest monsoon withdraws from India after the retreat begins from northwest India, usually in September.
In 2026 the withdrawal began from west Rajasthan on 19 September, two days after the normal date.
2 El Niño is associated with cooling of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
El Niño is a warming of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, as the World Meteorological Organization describes it.
3 Rainfall below 90 per cent of the Long Period Average is classed by the India Meteorological Department as deficient.
The 2026 season at 87 per cent fell in this class.