Third Cyclone May Threaten Andhra Coast This Month
Why in News?
- A third cyclone could hit Andhra Pradesh in less than a month, Down To Earth reported on 11 November 2026.
- The India Meteorological Department's outlook shows an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the south Andaman Sea, with a low-pressure area forecast on 13 November, a well-marked low on 14 November and a depression on 15 November. The Department has not said whether the depression will strengthen further.
- European model data suggested a cyclone could form around 16 November and reach the southern Andhra Pradesh coast by 19 November, but the forecast could change.
Key Terminologies
- Upper-Air Cyclonic Circulation
- A circulation of winds in the upper atmosphere that can develop into a low-pressure area at the surface. IMD's outlook shows one over the south Andaman Sea.
- Low-Pressure Area, Well-Marked Low and Depression
- Stages of a developing system, with a depression having sustained winds of about 31 to 49 km/h. A depression can grow into a cyclonic storm if conditions allow.
- ECMWF
- The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, whose model data is used worldwide. Its forecasts for 16 to 19 November were viewed through the windy.com website.
- Cyclone Arnab and Cyclone Murasu
- Arnab was a very severe cyclone that made landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast in the early hours of 28 October 2026, and Murasu a severe cyclone that made landfall on the southern coast on the night of 2 to 3 November.
- El Niño Year
- A year when the central Pacific is warmer than normal. K J Ramesh, a former IMD director general, called 2026 an unprecedented El Niño year that can throw up surprises in cyclone formation.
Key Issues
- The Forecast: IMD expects a low-pressure area over the south Andaman Sea on 13 November, a well-marked low on 14 November and a depression on 15 November, and it has not said whether it will intensify further.
- Model Signal: ECMWF data viewed on 11 November suggested a cyclone could form around 16 November and reach the southern Andhra Pradesh coast by 19 November. The IMD outlook does not extend that far, and the article stressed that forecasts could change.
- Earlier Storms: Cyclone Arnab hit the Andhra coast in the early hours of 28 October, and a second low-pressure system hit southern Odisha that evening. Murasu made landfall on the night of 2 to 3 November.
- Damage: About 4.61 lakh hectares of crops were damaged in Andhra Pradesh, including 29,960 hectares of horticultural crops, and recovery is continuing in Andhra Pradesh, parts of Odisha and Tamil Nadu.
- Expert Views: K J Ramesh noted that the 2013 season produced four cyclones, Phailin, Helen, Lehar and Madi. Sanjay Srivastava said the region already has swollen rivers and saturated soils and that farmer support plans are inadequate.
Key Implications
Positive/Pros/Merits
- Early Warning: A multi-day outlook gives states time to prepare shelters, stocks and alerts.
- Learning From Experience: Two storms in two weeks give authorities recent experience in evacuation and relief.
- Better Models: Comparing IMD and global model forecasts improves understanding, though the models can differ.
- Policy Ideas: Experts recommend elevated coastal roads, underground power lines, strong district emergency centres and amateur radio networks.
Negative/Cons/Demerits
- Compounded Risk: Saturated soil and swollen rivers raise the chance of floods from any new storm.
- Farmer Losses: A third storm could add to the 4.61 lakh hectares of crop damage.
- Uncertain Track: The forecast is early and could change, so over-warning or under-warning is possible.
- Strained Systems: Repeated storms strain relief funds, power lines and health care in affected districts.
Key Initiatives
- India Meteorological Department: Its 11 November outlook shows the circulation and expected stages up to a depression by 15 November.
- Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Governments: They are carrying out recovery after Arnab and Murasu and may need to prepare for a third system.
- Disaster Management Authorities: They coordinate warnings, evacuation and relief.
- Experts: Sanjay Srivastava of CROPC recommended climate-resilient infrastructure and stronger district emergency centres.
The article did not cover the Madden-Julian Oscillation or the vulnerable districts for a possible third system. The casualty figure of seven deaths from Arnab and 47,830 evacuated in Odisha appear only in related headlines and are not confirmed here.
Director's Perspective
Way Forward
- Know why October to December is the main cyclone season in the Bay of Bengal.
- Learn the stages: low-pressure area, well-marked low, depression, cyclonic storm.
- Understand how El Niño can affect cyclone numbers.
- Remember that forecasts beyond about five days carry more uncertainty.
- In answers, link cyclones to coastal resilience, early warning and crop insurance.
With two cyclones already having hit the east coast and a third possible by mid-November, the Andhra Pradesh coast faces a heavy post-monsoon season in an El Niño year. IMD's stages from a low to a depression are a warning rather than a certainty, and saturated soils raise the stakes. In a Mains answer, explain how cyclones form and are classified, discuss why repeated storms hurt farmers, and conclude that early warning, resilient infrastructure and timely support for farmers can reduce damage.
GS Relevance
Frequently Asked Questions
Could a third cyclone hit Andhra Pradesh in November 2026?
Down To Earth reported on 11 November 2026 that a third cyclone could hit Andhra Pradesh in less than a month. IMD forecasts a low-pressure area on 13 November and a depression on 15 November, while a European model suggested a cyclone around 16 November, but forecasts could change.
What were the earlier cyclones in 2026?
Cyclone Arnab was a very severe cyclone that made landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast in the early hours of 28 October 2026. Cyclone Murasu was a severe cyclone that made landfall on the southern coast on the night of 2 to 3 November, according to Down To Earth.
How much crop damage did the cyclones cause in Andhra Pradesh?
About 4.61 lakh hectares of crops were damaged in Andhra Pradesh, including 29,960 hectares of horticultural crops, according to Down To Earth. Recovery is continuing in Andhra Pradesh, parts of Odisha and Tamil Nadu.
PYQ Practice — Statement Analysis
1 A depression is a stage in the development of a tropical cyclone.
IMD forecast a depression over the Bay of Bengal by 15 November 2026.
2 Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal are most common in the post-monsoon months of October to December.
Arnab and Murasu hit the Andhra coast in this period.
3 An El Niño year always reduces the number of cyclones.
Experts say it can throw up surprises in cyclone formation.