Bay of Bengal Low May Become Cyclone by 26 Oct
Why in News?
- On 24 October 2026, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal could become a depression on the same day, News On AIR reported.
- It could turn into a deep depression on 25 October and a cyclonic storm by the morning of 26 October.
- The system is expected to move towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts, with a possible coastal approach around 28 October.
- Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast for parts of Odisha from Tuesday to Thursday, and for north Andhra Pradesh on 27 and 28 October.
- Fishermen have been advised to avoid the sea, and Odisha has put all 30 districts on alert.
Key Terminologies
- Low-Pressure Area
- A region where atmospheric pressure is lower than the surroundings, which draws in air and can organise into a storm over warm seas. It is the first stage in the system's development.
- Depression and Deep Depression
- Stages of a tropical system as winds strengthen after a low-pressure area. The IMD uses these stages in its bulletins before a system is called a cyclonic storm.
- Coastal Approach
- The point at which a cyclone nears or crosses the coast. The IMD has said the system may approach the coast around 28 October 2026.
- Zero-Casualty Approach
- Odisha's stated policy of aiming for no loss of life in a disaster, using early evacuation, shelters and emergency teams.
Key Issues
- Rapid Intensification Path: The IMD expects the system to move from a depression on 24 October to a cyclonic storm by 26 October, a step-wise rise reported by News On AIR. Rapid change leaves little time for evacuation.
- Rainfall Hazard: Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast in Odisha from Tuesday to Thursday, and extremely heavy rain is possible in isolated parts of north Andhra Pradesh on 27 and 28 October. Floods and waterlogging are the main risks along the coast.
- Vulnerable Coastline: Union Minister Harsh Vardhan told the Lok Sabha in March 2021 that low-lying coastal areas of West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are more prone to cyclone impacts.
- Risk at Sea: Severe Cyclone Ockhi in 2017 did not cross the coast but killed more than 200 fishermen at sea, according to the same Tribune report, which explains why fishermen are told to return.
- Shifting Basin Trends: Data for 1965 to 2020 show a decreasing trend of cyclonic storm formation over the Bay of Bengal and an increasing trend over the Arabian Sea, the minister said, though the Bay of Bengal remains prone to extremely severe storms.
Key Implications
Positive/Pros/Merits
- Early Warning Lead Time: Forecasts four days ahead of the possible coastal approach give time for evacuation. The minister said in 2021 that better IMD warnings and response by the National Disaster Management Authority and the Ministry of Home Affairs had significantly reduced deaths.
- State Readiness: Odisha has put all 30 districts on alert, is monitoring 16 vulnerable districts, and has cancelled leave for government employees, News On AIR reported on 24 October 2026.
- Shelters and Teams: Cyclone shelters, evacuation plans and emergency response teams are being prepared under the zero-casualty approach, according to the report.
- Fishermen Safety: Advisories asking fishermen in both states to return to shore reduce the main cause of deaths at sea seen during Ockhi.
Negative/Cons/Demerits
- Property Loss Remains High: The minister told the Lok Sabha in 2021 that property losses stay large even as deaths fall, because socio-economic and demographic factors raise vulnerability.
- Forecast Uncertainty: The track and the exact approach date are stated as possible and depend on how the system develops, so preparation must cover several scenarios.
- Livelihood Disruption: Heavy rain during the post-monsoon season can damage standing crops and fishing, an analytical point.
- Cyclone Damage Elsewhere: Cyclone Ditwah in November 2025 caused more than 600 deaths in Sri Lanka and India, Down To Earth reported in September 2026, a reminder of regional risk.
Key Initiatives
- National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project: The Centre launched it to reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities, the minister told the Lok Sabha in March 2021, with the Ministry of Home Affairs and the National Disaster Management Authority leading response.
- IMD Early Warning: The India Meteorological Department issues stage-wise forecasts of the system's strength and track, and its Director General outlined the expected path on 24 October 2026.
- Odisha Preparations: The State has alerted 30 districts, is monitoring 16 vulnerable districts and prepares shelters, evacuation plans and emergency teams under its zero-casualty approach.
- Fishermen Advisories: Fishermen in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh have been told to return to shore and follow the latest marine weather advisories.
The India Meteorological Department is tracking the Bay of Bengal low and will issue further updates on its movement and intensity. The Odisha government has alerted its administration and told fishermen not to go to sea. The reports reviewed do not give a landfall point or an official name for the system.
Director's Perspective
Way Forward
- Give district-level alerts in local languages through mobile messages and loudspeakers, so that coastal families act early.
- Pre-position relief and keep cyclone shelters stocked in the 16 vulnerable districts before the heaviest rain arrives on 27 October.
- Track fishing boats through registration and communication links, so that no crew remains at sea after the advisory.
- After the storm, assess crop and housing damage quickly and release assistance, because property loss is the main remaining challenge.
The forecast shows how mature India's cyclone warning system has become, with stage-wise guidance and early state action. The strengths are lead time, a zero-casualty approach and fisher advisories, while the weaknesses are forecast uncertainty and high property loss in a vulnerable coastline. In a Mains answer, credit early warning and the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project for lower deaths, then conclude that resilient housing and livelihoods now need equal attention.
GS Relevance
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bay of Bengal system forecast to do between 24 and 28 October 2026?
The India Meteorological Department says a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal could become a depression on 24 October, a deep depression on 25 October and a cyclonic storm by the morning of 26 October. It may approach the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts around 28 October.
Which states are expected to get heavy rain from the system?
Odisha is expected to get heavy to very heavy rain in parts from Tuesday to Thursday, while north Andhra Pradesh may receive heavy to very heavy rain on 27 and 28 October, with extremely heavy rain possible in isolated areas, according to News On AIR on 24 October 2026.
How has India reduced cyclone deaths?
Union Minister Harsh Vardhan told the Lok Sabha in March 2021 that better IMD early warnings and response by the National Disaster Management Authority and the Ministry of Home Affairs significantly reduced cyclone deaths, though property loss stayed large. The Centre also launched the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project.
PYQ Practice — Statement Analysis
1 Cyclonic storm formation over the Bay of Bengal showed a decreasing trend and over the Arabian Sea an increasing trend for the period 1965 to 2020.
This was stated in the Lok Sabha in March 2021.
2 Most Arabian Sea cyclones make landfall on the coasts of Gujarat and Maharashtra.
Most make landfall on the coasts of Oman and Yemen.
3 Severe Cyclone Ockhi of 2017 killed more than 200 fishermen without crossing the coast.
It did not cross the coast but caused deaths at sea.