Theories of Population Growth: Malthusian Theory, Marxian Theory, Demographic Transition Theory
Geography › Population and Demography · Topic 9.5
Three main theories explain population growth. The English economist Thomas Malthus argued in 1798 that population grows geometrically while food grows arithmetically, so checks of famine, disease and war must restrain it unless people limit their numbers. Karl Marx held that there is no natural law of population; overpopulation arises from the capitalist system, which creates a surplus labour force. The demographic transition theory says that every country passes from high birth and death rates, through falling death rates and rapid growth, to low birth and death rates and slow growth.
5 min read · UPSC Prelims · Geography · Population and Demography
At a Glance
- Malthus Population geometric, food arithmetic (1798)
- Marx Overpopulation is relative to the social system
- Demographic transition Four or five stages
- Malthusian checks Preventive and positive
- India Late expanding to early stationary stage
- Exam link UPSC Prelims, Geography: Population and Demography
Where Does It Fit?
This topic follows the characteristics of population and gives the major theories that explain how populations grow. It prepares for the topic on the problems of developing and developed countries, which show what these theories predict. Previous topic: Sex ratio Females per 1,000 males Pyramid types…">Population Characteristics: Age Composition, Population Pyramids, Gender/Sex Composition, Literacy Rates. Next topic: Population Challenges in Developing and Developed Countries.
What Is the Malthusian Theory?
In short: Malthus said that people multiply faster than food, so nature will check their numbers harshly if people do not check them first.
- Source: An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798, by Thomas Robert Malthus.
- Main idea: population, if unchecked, grows geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8, 16), whereas food supply grows only arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Sooner or later, population presses on food.
- Preventive checks: voluntary measures by people, such as late marriage and celibacy (‘moral restraint’).
- Positive checks: natural calamities that raise the death rate, such as famine, disease and war.
- Criticism: Malthus did not foresee the farm revolution, new technology, trade and family planning, which have raised food output faster than population in many places; the fall of fertility with development; the idea that all checks are due to food alone. His idea is still used in debates on carrying capacity and sustainability.
What Is the Marxian View and How Do Others Differ?
| Thinker or theory | Main idea |
|---|---|
| Karl Marx | Rejects the Malthusian law. Overpopulation is relative to the economic system, not to food. Under capitalism, machines displace workers and create a ‘reserve army’ of unemployed labour, so poverty is due to the system and not to numbers |
| Ester Boserup (1965) | Population pressure drives people to invent and adopt more intensive farming, so food supply rises with population; the reverse of Malthus |
| Optimum population | There is an ideal size at which output per person is highest; below it the country is under-populated, above it over-populated |
| Neo-Malthusians | Link population growth to resource limits and the environment, as in the ‘limits to growth’ debate of the 1970s |
What Is the Demographic Transition Theory?
| Stage | Birth rate | Death rate | Growth | Examples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. High stationary | High | High | Low, slow | Pre-industrial societies; hardly any country now |
| 2. Early expanding | High | Falling fast | Rapid | Parts of Africa; Niger, Afghanistan |
| 3. Late expanding | Falling | Low | Slowing | India, Bangladesh, Brazil, Mexico |
| 4. Low stationary | Low | Low | Little or none | USA, Canada, France |
| 5. Declining (added by some) | Very low | Low or rising with age | Negative | Japan, Italy, Germany, South Korea |
The theory was based on the experience of Western Europe by Warren Thompson in 1929 and Frank Notestein in 1945. Death rates fall first because of better food, sanitation and medicine, and birth rates fall later as education, urban life, women’s work and family planning spread. The gap in time produces the population boom of stage 2. Critics note that not all countries follow the path in the same way or timing, and that migration and policy matter. Many developing countries have gone through the transition much faster than Europe did, because medicines and vaccines were imported cheaply and the death rate fell within a few decades, which has produced a larger population surge than in the West. In contrast, the fall in the birth rate has taken longer where education of girls and the status of women have lagged. The experience of Keralam (Kerala), with low fertility at modest income levels, shows that schooling and women’s autonomy can speed up the second half of the transition. India has crossed stage 2 and is in the late expanding stage, moving towards the stationary stage, as in Census of India: Literacy, Sex Ratio, Family Planning, Old Age Dependency, Age Structure, Density, Population Growth. The general challenges seen at each stage are in Population Challenges in Developing and Developed Countries.
Why Is This Topic Important?
- Theories Names and years are asked
- Stages Where countries stand
- Debate Resources and population
What Came Next?
The next topic describes population challenges in developing and developed countries. Next topic: Population Challenges in Developing and Developed Countries.
Key People and Terms
- Geometric progression Growth by a fixed multiple
- Arithmetic progression Growth by a fixed amount
- Preventive check Voluntary limit on births
- Positive check Famine, disease, war
- Reserve army Marx’s term for surplus labour
- Demographic transition Shift from high to low birth and death rates
Exam Corner
Points to Remember
- Malthus: 1798; geometric versus arithmetic.
- Positive checks: famine, disease, war.
- Marx: overpopulation due to the system.
- Death rate falls before birth rate.
- India is in the late expanding stage.
Do Not Confuse With
- Preventive and positive checks Voluntary versus natural calamities
- Malthus and Boserup Food limits population versus population drives food innovation
- Stage 2 and stage 3 Rapid growth from falling deaths versus slowing growth as births fall
Memory Hook
Malthus multiplies, food adds; Marx blames the system; transition runs by stages.
Mains Angle
Questions ask for an evaluation of the theories. These points add depth.
- Malthus Strength and failure
- Alternatives Marx and Boserup
- Transition Stage of India
A Question You May Face
An original practice question, not a past paper question.
“Critically examine the Malthusian theory of population and compare it with the demographic transition theory.”
How to Answer
- Malthus Ratios and checks.
- Criticism Technology and fertility fall.
- Transition Stages.
- India Where it stands.
GS Relevance
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Malthusian theory of population?
Thomas Malthus argued in 1798 that population increases geometrically while food supply increases only arithmetically. Unless people limit births through preventive checks like late marriage, nature will limit population through positive checks such as famine, disease and war. Technology and falling fertility have made his prediction false in many places.
What are the preventive and positive checks?
In the Malthusian theory, preventive checks are voluntary actions by people to reduce births, such as delayed marriage and abstinence. Positive checks are natural or social calamities that raise the death rate and reduce population, such as famine, epidemics and wars.
What is the Marxian theory of population?
Karl Marx rejected the idea of a universal law of population. He argued that overpopulation is relative to the economic system, and that under capitalism machines displace workers and create a surplus of unemployed labour, called the reserve army, so that poverty is the result of the system and not of too many people.
What is the demographic transition theory?
The demographic transition theory describes the shift of a country from high birth and death rates to low ones as it develops. Death rates fall first, causing rapid growth, and birth rates then fall, slowing growth. It is usually described in four stages, with a fifth of decline added by some.
At which stage of the demographic transition is India?
India is generally placed in the late expanding stage, bordering the low stationary stage. Death rates are low, birth rates have fallen considerably, the total fertility rate is near the replacement level of 2.1, and population growth is slowing, though the population continues to increase because of its young age structure.
PYQ Practice — Statement Analysis
1 Malthus said that food supply grows geometrically.
He said population grows geometrically.
2 Famine and disease are positive checks in the Malthusian theory.
They raise the death rate.
3 In the demographic transition, the birth rate falls before the death rate.
The death rate falls first.
4 Karl Marx supported the Malthusian law of population.
He rejected it.
Past Mains Questions on This Topic
This topic comes under Population and Demography. UPSC Mains questions asked on the matching syllabus topic, year-wise with marks:
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